Norway’s dominant win leaves Italy with one option to avoid World Cup playoff

Norway crushed Moldova 11-1 on Tuesday night, opening up a massive gap in goal difference over Italy and leaving the Azzurri with little hope to avoid the World Cup playoffs.

Norway’s 11-1 win over Moldova in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers on Tuesday allowed Erling Haaland’s side to take a six-point lead over Italy in Group I.

The Azzurri have a game in hand, but the biggest concern for Gennaro Gattuso’s men is the goal difference: Norway now boast a +21 tally compared to Italy’s +5.

The Azzurri had climbed to second placement with a dramatic 5-4 win over Israel on Monday, yet the gulf in numbers leaves qualification hanging by a thread.

Only the group winners qualify for the World Cup, while runners-up must go through the playoffs.

Italy’s remaining fixture in World Cup qualifiers

The Azzurri have four games remaining in the World Cup qualifiers: against Estonia (away) and Israel (home) in the October break, and then against Moldova (away) and Norway (home) in November.

Given that the gap in goal difference seems insurmountable, the only way to avoid playoffs for Italy is to see Norway drop points in two of their remaining games before they meet with the Azzurri.

Norway’s remaining fixtures are against Israel at home, Estonia and Italy away.

If Italy win all their games and Norway drop points before their trip to San Siro on November 16, a win in the final match of the group phase will allow La Nazionale to qualify as group winners, but it’s easier said than done.

Group I – updated table after Norway 11-1 Moldova